wdpn31 pgtw 020300
msgid/genadmin/joint hurricane wrncen Pearl Harbor hello//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 05w (Nanmadol)
warning nr 01//
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and investigation.
Tropical depression 05w (Nanmadol), located close to 351 nm
south of Kadena AB, has tracked north-northwestward at 22 knots
about the earlier 6 hrs. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery depicts a quickly consolidating technique with formative
banding and sizeable mid-volume turning. The preliminary scenario is
dependent on agency satellite fixes, but with very low self esteem owing to a
broad very low volume circulation nonetheless consolidating evidenced in new
satellite and microwave imagery. The preliminary depth analysis of
thirty knots is dependent on multi-agency Dvorak estimates ranging from t1.-
t2. (twenty five to thirty knots). A 011259z metop-b ascat effect demonstrates a locale
of far more sturdy gradient winds to the northeast of the technique. Upper-
volume conditions are at the instant favorable as a TUTT mobile just to the
west of the technique has aided outflow about the very last 6 hrs, and
wind shear values are very low. SSTs in the locale are also quite warmth
around thirty celsius. A deep-layer subtropical ridge to the northeast is
at the instant steering TD 05w on a north-northwestward track.
three. Forecast reasoning.
A. This is the preliminary forecast and sets the forecast philosophy
for this technique.
B. The subtropical ridge will steer TD 05w northward about the
subsequent twelve to 24 hrs in advance of rounding the ridge axis and accelerating
to the northeast. TD 05w is expected to intensify about the subsequent 24
hrs as an approaching higher-volume trough from the west will
enrich outflow. Outdoors of tau 24 SSTs will drop noticeably and wind
shear will start out to increase as TD 05w interacts with the westerlies
connected with the trough. TD 05w will changeover to an
extratropical technique as it tracks throughout honshu turning into entirely
extratropical by tau seventy two. Dynamic style route demonstrates quite restricted
settlement, lending substantial self esteem to the forecast track.//
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